Market Research |
I grew up with a chemistry laboratory in my garage. When I had to cart it all to the city dump, because my parents were downsizing their home, I was crushed beyond words. I vowed never to lose another laboratory again. So numbers became my chemicals, real estate my laboratory, and my computer replaces all the glassware, burners and equipment. Very little has been written on statistics, charts and graphs applied to real estate. I believe this is mainly due to the fact that real estate is viewed as a local market-not like the stock market which is national and supports thousands of books written on the subject. Although it is local, the concepts connected with a real estate market are eternal and all pervasive. The methods and discoveries made in one area will apply equally well in other areas. Below is a collection of articles, experiments, speculations, and some original ideas concerning statistics applied to the real estate market. Some of it anyone can follow. Others are more technical and assume you love this stuff in order to follow it completely. I hope you find something to please you. I have trunk full of past, current and "works in progress" writings and thoughts that over time, I will upload to this web page. If you are also blessed or cursed with numbers and real estate, Email me and let's commiserate together or meet for a beer. |
Articles |
What happens when a local MLS database cannot define "New Construction" with any degree of accuracy? All current and historical comparisons of existing homes with new construction homes become meaningless. This is the unfortunate situation with our local database. Read the evidence and the proposed solutions. The End of New Construction?
How does the balance of new construction and existing homes affect the inventory? This article is from early 2005 when the inventory buildup in Northwest Arkansas was at a critical point. (Easy). Prelude to Folly: Tracking the Inventory 2001-2005. |
What is involved in forecasting a real estate market? Is is easy? What are the pitfalls? Here is an article from early 2005, that demonstrates the science and art of forecasting. (Moderately difficult). Beer and Guts: Forecasting the Real Estate Market Comparing companies and agents. Where are the profits? How much money do average agents and average companies make? What is the turnover rate in real estate? (Easy-moderate) Agents, Companies and Markets: Who has the money? There is a hidden inventory beyond the Multiple Listing Service were new construction homes lie vacant and forgotten. How big is this inventory of homes? Why are they there? (Easy) The Blame is not in the Starts: Hidden Homes of Northwest Arkansas. How much does the MLS database change after numbers are reported? Will this significantly affect what was reported? (Moderately difficult and technical). Changes in Reported Data. Is the data reported in the database perfect? What if it isn't, can we discover this and should we change entries? What types of errors are their and how often do they occur? (Moderately difficult and technical). Entry Concerns in the MLS Database. The local market of Northwest Arkansas follows the national trends but has a few surprises of its own. See what makes us different. 2007 Market in Review In a search for the perfect indicator showing the rise or fall of home values, the Median average has come under attack. Can comparing annual Medians give us an accurate picture of an increase or decrease in general home values? What other hidden factors should also be taken into account for better accuracy? Are We Being Mean to the Median? We are not as depressed as some other sections of the nation. See: 2008 Market in Review After the first full year of the "economic meltdown", how did we fare? See: 2009 Market in Review Have we reached bottom? See; 2010 Market in Review Recovery? See: 2011 Market in Review |
Charts and Graphs |
What if you could display the entire residential market for a single year, all on one page? The inventory, sales, pending, withdrawn, the ebb and flow every month. Would that not be neat? Here is my stab at it: Annual Residential Market Report for 2005. Annual Residential Market Report for 2006 Annual Residential Market Report for 2007 Annual Residential Market Report for 2008 Annual Residential Market Report for 2009 Ah, The mind of a statistician! Back in 2007 I found myself wondering what the various zip codes (some 45 of them), in Northwest Arkansas would show for median sales price for 2007. I ran the numbers and received positive response. I have continued the analysis every year. |
© 2009 by Paul R. Bynum |
